Predictions for 2024
Work hard, stay hard, and success will come in the long run, no matter what happens.
Disclaimer Alert: Finance, Fun, and Fiction: Before you get any ideas, remember: this is pure comedy, not financial planning. I'm not your financial advisor; I'm more like a friend with wild ideas at 2 AM.
Last year’s predictions:
S&P 500 around 4200 - Well closed at 4700, went better than expected!
Bitcoin UP: 30k (There have never been two down years in a row.) - Ended the year 42k, best-performing asset of 2023. Bitcoin was under 20k when I wrote this shit.
Gold: 2200 - 2060. Bitcoin stole the show?
War will end - More wars…
I will spread more freedom and love - It did not happen…
Everybody was so bearish in early 2023 that you just had to be bullish.
From the post:
What could start this “clown rally”?
A.I hype narrative fueling tech stock growth? (speculation has already begun strong early 2023).
“Green energy” hype also should be flaming hot?
One more time, please… If all the gamblers want a rally they will get it.
Well, the A.I call was on point.
See, I suck at predictions, it is 10x easier to stay humble and stack sats and quality business.
This is the way fuckers. There are still beautiful businesses to own, and it is never too late to start stacking.
Work hard, stay hard, and success will come in the long run, no matter what happens.
2024 Themes
The debasement of currencies will continue.
→ Nominal values will continue to rise.
Make more FIAT → Buy more Bitcoin.
Ideas:
Finnish stock market, I have written a lot about the Finnish stock market, and I think it is still an “ok” buy; it is undervalued, in my opinion. Top Finnish companies are still strong.
SELIGSON & CO OMX HELSINKI 25 UCITS ETF
Very defensive play
Good play to buy and forget
Emerging markets:
EM already had a good year in 2023, but there are still plenty of opportunities, especially if you are willing to go deeper than just picking up the indices. There are a lot of gems to find. I will explore this more in 2024.
China continues to disappoint…???
Crypto markets:
The gambling won’t end; I think it will just accelerate from here. Retail investors feel left out, and they want to get rich fast. The crypto market is already at 1.82 trillion; if we pump more liquidity and retail gets a break, this shit will moon. Look at the on-chain gambling on meme coins etc, fucking crazy shit.
After the Bitcoin ETF, we will get the shitcoin ETF. There are already whispers of ETH ETF. What’s next?
Retail is currently absent on the on-chain action its only the true degens playing pvp. With the ETFs and other products coming, do they even care about “on-chain” in the future? Just get some exposure and forget? Why bother going for a full degen mode?
It is also not discussed much, but getting the money out of the crypto ecosystem and getting it in is getting harder and harder.
Bank transfers are getting blocked.
The biggest banks are even banning cryptocurrencies.
IRS breathing on the neck (must report transactions?) Similar things are probably coming to the EU.
Sure, it is not a problem for the degens, but for the normies? Why bother?
Just get the Bitcoin ETF and maybe some crypto stock or ETF that tracks everything?
Coinbase will be my play to get exposure. (I was writing a piece on Coinbase. Why to have a look, but it ran so fucking hard, so…) Now it’s cooling off, time to buy?
It is far from dying, and you have to respect that. Crypto is not going away. Like it, love or hate it. People want to speculate and gamble in the future.
Coinbase might offer a good value capture through the whole “crypto industry”, not just Bitcoin or the biggest shitcoins. Good exposure beyond Bitcoin.
Less competition, FTX (Was the biggest scam), Binance (struggling)
What businesses are left in crypto that can service Institutions at the moment?
The enormous opportunity for Coinbase to grow the bottom line is their blockchain (BASE) and Stablecoins, USDC.
Huge opportunity also to offshore and enter the perpetual market?
— The most significant risk is that 90% of revenue comes from the US.
— Regulatory threat still looms over COIN.
— It is a pretty shitty company, after all, but does it even matter nowadays? It is the “industry” leader ATM. It might even become a “meme stock” or whatever. Who knows?
Everything and everybody feels like max stupid. If liquidity gets pumped more, this speculative risk asset will rip and melt faces, EZ to 500. Is this a good bet if you believe the soft landing and “risk on”?
It has already run 381.9% from its all-time low of $31.55 to the current price of $152. It just had a -20% correction COIN 0.00%↑ Nothing goes up forever…
Insiders sold heavily.
With this kind of shit, you have to have your dancing shoes on 24/7.
Commodities:
Economy strong? The minerals of the earth don’t exactly scream a strong economy.
The “green transition” will require massive amounts of commodities
Debasement continues. Everything tangible > Paper.
Inflation fear is now deflation fear…
We have a decade of inflation ahead, I would not scream this debasement continues shit otherwise. Everything needs a breather, and maybe 2024 is for commodities and inflation. (Hint: buy low, sell high)
Be it fucking weather, supply constraints, geopolitical tension or whatever, embrace the volatility. Tremendous opportunities are always here.
Again, I would like to whisper about China.
I currently own some Uranium ETF and Cameco.
Small caps
Year of the fucking small caps? It is always for some of them, at least. Stay away from the zombies, but it might be worth it this year to go deep and find those narrative/hype-driven shit or carve out some long-term value plays.
From Helsinki, I have suggested taking a look at Lapwall.
The MAG7 has run too hard so its time for the shitty small caps to run too! Well the world is full of idiots so who knows. Let’s get drunk again and party like it’s 2021 again. Maybe we can even return to “value investing” if everything goes well.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin remains the best opportunity from now on. I don’t know what the ETFs will do for the price in the short term, but for the long term, it is extremely bullish. My ich is “overvalued” in the short term and massively “undervalued” in the long term. What will these ETFs do to Bitcoin?
The year started with a good flush of leverage out of Bitcoin; this is very good. Cmoon it won’t be straight line up to the million.
What is the value these days? 850bn Bitcoin is still the best value out there.
The best long-term strategy still lies in embracing technology. Its demand is only set to increase, and it's clear that technology isn't just a passing trend but a fundamental aspect of our future. Monetary debasement continues also, no matter what.
It should do fine in pretty much every situation.
Conclusion
What great investment ideas aren’t they for a spectacular year of 2024 where everybody wants to get rich? The interest rates will go down, real estate will be saved, and everything from crypto to small caps will moon! The pivot will make all asset classes soar! The year 2023 was not bad, and we saw awesome YTD % gains posts on X, and now we are primed for success…
My deepest wish for 2024 would be that this madness would end. We need a wipeout, reinvest in something productive, and reward those who genuinely innovate.
The market expects plenty of rate cuts for 2024, but how would the rates go lower after reading the above? The talking heads talk about lower rates 24/7: “Then we find something worthwhile to invest”. It is the year of the bonds, wasn’t this last year’s big call? I don’t wish for a devastating recession, but higher for longer would be perfect; get rid of the “clown world.” The Market has started questioning whether we will get so many rate cuts in 2024 that everybody expects…
The plan stays the same:
Arm yourself with knowledge
Grow your portfolio (With capital, you can protect yourself from the widespread stupidity and challenges in the world)
No debt
Live like a student
Have an emergency fund
There is zero point in being “bear”, “bull”, “don’t care”, “value investor”, “bitcoin maxi” “doomer”. The market is a casino; shit changes so fast. The worst you can do is to follow some random predictions or trap yourself in the mentality that I am right! Being “right” has nothing to do with making money.
It is hard to see anything spectacular happening in the short term; the underlying economy seems weak —> Rates lower —> Oil prices weaker = Not very strong economy. On top of this JUST IN: 10 of the last 11 months have seen downward revisions in their jobs number, according to Zerohedge.
“Economy looking stronger than reality.” I certainly feel this way. Everything is so confusing - barely anything makes sense.
Predictions:
S&P 500: 4900, weak Q1, I remain cautious. Let’s buy more when everybody screams crash. Something breaks again in Q1? Keep an eye out:
The Fed's reverse repo facility
Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)
China China China
Bitcoin: New all-time high in Q3 82k and closes the year around 60k.
Gold: 2200, I hate to say it but maybe it is year of the gold instead of Bitcoin?
US10Y: 4% - Sitting here and guessing.
Good reads:
https://info.nydig.com/hubfs/2023-Stone-Ridge-Investor-Letter.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-investment-outlooks/