Finland Finland Finland
The Bottom Is In: A Finnish Reality Check
The sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish - when my normie friends and bankers turn bearish, they're usually wrong. I was the contrarian calling the top in late 2021/early 2022. The crowd isn't always wrong. Understanding why the sentiment exists and what's changing in the underlying conditions matters. (I am always “contrarian”).
Being contrarian alone isn't a strategy. Neither is hope.
Evidence for the bottom:
My business had a strong Q4 2024
Record bankruptcies in Finland - why? Over-optimism and lack of adaptation
The persistent belief in "growth next year" despite no policy changes
The Real Finnish Problem: Finland doesn't have a people problem - it has a leadership problem. Where's the growth coming from? No tax reduction, no easier investing, no simpler hiring processes. List could go on for ever.
Numbers don’t lie.
Housing (Espoo, prime location):
2019: 400k
2025: ~400k
Real loss with 4% inflation: -20%
Investment Alternatives:
OMXH25: +15.22% (still lost to inflation)
S&P500: +140% (the clear winner)
Bitcoin perspective: 42 BTC (2019) → 4 BTC (2025)
The Finnish Delusion:
Believing someone else will generate growth (government/EU)
Accepting the destruction of housing as primary store of value
The bizarre acceptance of ever-increasing taxation
Finland remains a 10/10 for "slow living" - perfect for your 37.5h corporate bullshit grind or countryside dreams (I might set up a small chicken farm?).
Waiting for the government to create growth... The change won't come from suits in Helsinki or Brussels.
Growth comes from individuals willing to take risks, from entrepreneurs building despite the bureaucracy, from people believing in their own capability to create value.
The real bottom isn't just about numbers - it's about when enough people stop waiting for permission to create.
So yes, the bottom is in. But the recovery won't come from the top down. It will come from those who stop believing in the fairy tale of government-led growth and start believing in themselves. The question isn't "when will they fix it?" but "when will we start building?"
I've shifted from 50/50 to 70/30 on relocating elsewhere. Not because Finland lacks potential, but because it lacks belief in the power of individual initiative.
Do you believe that Finnish consumers will bounce back? Few ideas:
NoHo Partners (NOHO)
Current price 8€. 52-week range 6.9€ - 8.8€
Buy Thesis:
📈 Management that actually knows how to run profitable restaurants (rare in Finland)
📈 Strategic locations creating mini-monopolies in events
📈 Benefiting from industry consolidation - small restaurants are dying left and right. Does Finnish IQ70 consumers even celebrate this? (yes)
📈 Insiders are buying
📈 Good margin of safety, the bottom is in Finland? Consumers are already uber-doomerish.
Risks:
🚩 Debt levels are high
🚩 Liquidity is thin
Key: Believe the suits, the cucks will start to believe. The Q4 2024 result should be “encouraging” for the Finnish consumer is back narrative. When everybody yells that Finnish consumers are back, we exit this hopefully +10€ price.
Other small caps from Finland, “Finnish consumer is back narrative.” Followed by NoHo → Orthex → Lappwall (late cycle and if you genuinely believe that Finland will start growing).
It's not financial advice, obviously, for fun and comedy.
Sources and good reads:
https://mises.org/mises-wire/opposing-keynesian-illusion-spending-does-not-drive-economy
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-22012025-bp
https://mises.org/library/book/how-think-about-economy-primer
My 2 sats how get just small growth?
